HomeMy WebLinkAbout41. Professional Service Agreement- Water System Capacity Study, JacobsCity
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Oshkosh
MEMORANDUM
TO: Honorable Mayor and Members of the Common Council
FROM: Mark A. Rohloff, City Manager 0,.--F—
DATE: August 23, 2018
RE: Professional Services Agreement with Jacobs / Water System Capacity Study
($74,140)
The Department of Public Works requested a proposal from Jacobs for a detailed water system
capacity study. The services provided under this proposal include, but are not limited to, data
review and project kick-off, historical data analysis, water demand forecast and risk analysis,
water system capacity study report, and project management and quality assurance/quality
control. The purpose of the study is to provide a detailed analysis of current and future demand
to guide the Water Utility in long range planning for capital projects. Projects such as the
clearwell replacement project and future equipment replacement projects at the Water Filtration
Plant will rely on the results of this study to ensure the plant infrastructure is capable of meeting
the demand needs of our Water Utility users.
Jacobs was chosen because of their experience in modeling the City Water Utility's infrastructure,
knowledge of our water distribution system, and their proposed partnership team's vast
experience with this type of work. Staff has reviewed the agreement and costs. The cost of these
services is estimated not to exceed $74,140. Funds for this work are available in the 2018 Water
Utility Operating Budget.
Chapter 12 of the Municipal Code of the City of Oshkosh provides that professional services of a
specialized nature, including engineering services, may be procured without the use of formal,
sealed quotes. In accordance with Section 12-16 of the Code, I am hereby submitting this report
regarding this professional services agreement.
Please contact me if you have any questions concerning this professional services agreement.
MAR/jer
L\ Engineering \Tracy Taylor\Memos to Mayor & Common Council\ 2018 \Jacobs Wtr Syst Capacity Study Agreement_8-23-18.docx
SCOPE OF SERVICES AUGUST 20, 2018
City of Oshkosh Water System Capacity Study
Purpose and Background
The purpose of the City of Oshkosh (City) Water System Capacity Study (Study) is to develop water
demand forecasts in support of the Public Service Commission (PSC) construction authorization
permitting process for the City's Water Filtration Plant (WFP) Clearwells Replacement Project. The WFP
Clearwells Replacement Project involves construction of 2 million gallons (MG) of at -grade finished
water storage to replace 2.4 MG of buried finished water storage and construction of 16 million gallon
per day (mgd) finished water pumping capacity to replace the existing 17.8 mgd pumping capacity. The
PSC is not currently questioning the construction of 2 MG storage and approved in 2016 the City's
finished water storage strategy in its construction authorization of the Marion Road Water Tower
Replacement Project. The PSC is requesting additional information in support of the 16 mgd pumping
capacity. This request is based upon decreased customer water demand over the past several years and
a previous water demand estimate which falls short of 16 mgd.
The goals of the Study include the following:
• A forecast of future water demand spatially distributed through the planned service area that is
helpful to the City's comprehensive infrastructure planning and coordinated with the City of
Oshkosh 2050 Sanitary Sewer System Planning Study (2017).
• A current analysis of customer water use and system patterns, goals for non -revenue water, and
service area land use plans.
• Use of multivariate deterministic modeling to evaluate alternative scenarios for the future using
customer demand unit rates, population growth and development rates, weather variables, and
other system factors.
• Statistically -based analysis of the risks associated with exceedance of each water demand
scenario.
• Evaluation of water system capacity risks related to operational uncertainties and constraints
unrelated to forecasted demand.
• Recommendations for pumping capacity to reliably meet water system needs, advance the WFP
Clearwells Replacement Project, and provide a basis for other long-range water utility
improvement projects.
There is inherent uncertainty in all forecasts of future demand. To develop forecasts that minimize
uncertainty and risk for the City, Jacobs will partner with AECOM to review data, develop planning
assumptions, and analyze modeling results. Jacobs and AECOM both have extensive experience
preparing long-range water demand forecasts and working with local stakeholders and regulators to
implement critical water utility projects. Together, we provide the City a team of professionals with
detailed knowledge of the City's water system and an impartial, third party perspective helpful to
studies whose findings may be challenged. The Study will be completed in the following tasks:
Task 1 — Data Review and Project Kick-off
Task 2 — Historical Data Analysis
Task 3 — Water Demand Forecast and Risk Analysis
WATER SYSTEM CAPACITY STUDY SCOPE OF SERVICES
Task 4 — Water System Capacity Study Report
Task 5 — Project Management and Quality Assurance/Quality Control
Task 1— Data Summary and Project Kick-off
Data Review
Jacobs will collect and summarize pertinent water utility data and planning information including the
following:
• City of Oshkosh Water Utility Annual Reports to PSC
• Detailed WFP pumping and system storage operating data
• City water billing data and current geographic information system (GIS) shapefiles
• Water rates and median household income
• Current population projections from the State of Wisconsin Department of Administration and
the East Central Wisconsin Regional Planning Commission (ECWRPC)
• Service area delineation in coordination with ECWRPC including potential new wholesale
customers
• Current and planned future land use information from the City and Winnebago County
• City Community Development Department reports
• Unemployment data
• City Capital Improvement Program (2018-2022)
• Area rainfall data
Jacobs will summarize historical data and future planning information for review and discussion at the
project kick-off meeting.
Kick-off Meeting
Following data review, Jacobs will facilitate a project kick-off meeting with the City and AECOM to
review the project work plan; team assignments; and schedule for work progress, meetings, and
deliverables. At this meeting, water utility and service area planning information will be reviewed. Any
necessary additional required data will be identified.
Deliverables
Meeting minutes
Water utility and service area data summary
Task 2—Historical Data Analysis
Jacobs and AECOM will analyze the dataset and use it to develop a regression model that will serve as
the basis for the development of alternative future scenarios. The data analysis will include the
following:
• Service area 20 -year historic population trend and 2050 population projections
• Service area current and planned land use
• Historical (2000 — 2017) water use trends — total water production; peak day use; average
annual use; seasonality of use; use by customer class and/or land use as appropriate; and
impacts of unemployment, recession, weather, water rates, and indoor conservation
Jacobs will develop a statistical model that provides the 'best fit' to the dataset to enable use of
regression analysis in the evaluation of alternative future water demand scenarios. The model will be
2
WATER SYSTEM CAPACITY STUDY SCOPE OF SERVICES
built using the Palisade Decision Tools Suite @Risk application. Jacobs will validate the model and
identify through sensitivity analysis the variables to which the model is most sensitive. Jacobs will
document model development and validation for peer review by AECOM. AECOM will also assist the City
and Jacobs in the evaluation of water use trends and exploration of factors that may drive water use in
the future. Jacobs and AECOM will summarize Task 2 findings. Jacobs will facilitate a meeting with the
City and AECOM to discuss the historical data analysis and water demand forecasting assumptions.
Deliverables
Meeting minutes
Historical data analysis summary
Water demand regression analysis model
Task 3—Water Demand Forecast and Risk Analysis
Jacobs will use the model to forecast water demand under 3 alternative scenarios:
Low — low population growth and community development, high unemployment, reductions in
water use, cool/wet weather
Medium — average population growth and community development, average unemployment,
average water use, average weather
3. High — high population growth and community development, low unemployment, high water
use, hot/dry weather
Further, the model will also be used to estimate the probability of exceeding each alternative scenario's
water demand forecast. This will allow the City to better understand the uncertainty associated with
each forecast.
In addition, Jacobs will evaluate risks to water system pumping capacity related to operational
uncertainties and system constraints. These risks, not directly linked to forecasted customer demand,
include the following potential impacts:
Changes to community fire protection insurance rating
Challenges to seasonal water storage management strategies
Operational constraints due to excursions in water quality, routine maintenance, or failure
events such as major water main breaks
Jacobs will document the water demand forecast and risk analysis for peer review by AECOM. Jacobs
will facilitate a meeting with the City and AECOM to discuss the Task 3 findings and formalize a
recommendation for water system pumping capacity that allows the City to continue to reliably deliver
vital water services and advance the WFP Clearwells Replacement Project.
Deliverables
Meeting minutes
Water demand forecast and risk analysis
Task 4—Water System Capacity Study Report
Jacobs will compile the historic data summary, data analysis, model development, water demand
forecast and risk analysis in a draft Study Report for City and AECOM review. Jacobs will meet with the
City and AECOM to discuss comments and revisions. Jacobs will incorporate the City's and AECOM's
review comments in the final study report. Five paper copies and one PDF copy of the final Water
System Capacity Study Report will be submitted to the City.
WATER SYSTEM CAPACITY STUDY SCOPE OF SERVICES
Deliverables:
Draft and Final Water System Capacity Study Report
Task 5—Project Management and Quality Assurance/Quality
Control
Jacobs will manage the delivery of the professional technical services and work products to meet the
City's schedule and budget. Project management duties include project instructions, which address
team communication, quality assurance/quality control (QA/QC), and cost control. Instructions to the
project delivery team will guide performance by defining the following:
• Detailed scope of services and project deliverables
• Task assignments, work plan, and schedule
• Project communication plan
• Project budget and performance monitoring
• Managing potential change
• Quality management
Project team communication will be maintained through regular team meetings, teleconferences, and e-
mail. During project meetings and workshops, Jacobs will provide project status information. Jacobs will
submit a brief description of project activities and track budget status with each monthly invoice.
Jacobs and AECOM will perform a QA/QC review of completed work and project progress prior to
submission of work products to the City.
Deliverables
Monthly progress reports with invoices
Schedule
Notice to Proceed: August, 2018
Task 1—Data Review and Project Kick-off: August – September, 2018
Task 2—Historical Data Analysis: September - October, 2018
Task 3—Water Demand Forecast and Risk Analysis: November, 2018
Task 4—Water System Capacity Study Report: December, 2018
Level of Effort and Compensation
The estimated level of effort is 498 hours and the proposed compensation for professional services is
$74,140. A task breakdown is shown in Table 1.
Tabel 1. Water System Capacity Study Level of Effort and Compensation
Task Description
Senior Project
Senior
Consultant
Project
Engineer
Staff Engineer
Clerical
Project
Accountant
Jacobs
Labor By
Task
Jacobs
Hoursby
Task
Jacobs
Expense by
Task
Jacobs Task
Total
AECOM Labor
by Task
AECOM
Hours by Task
AECOM
Expense by
Task
AECOM
Task Total
TOTAL BY
TASK
-Manager
Task 1- Data Review and Klck-off
Hours
Hours
Hours
Hours
Hours
Hours
Task 1
16
6
24
24
8
$11,160
78
$800
$11,960
$2,600
14
$400
$3,000
$14,960
TASK 1 TOTAL
16
6
24
24
8
0
$11,160
78
$800
$11,960
$3,000
$14,960
Task 2- Historical Data Analysis
Hours
Hours
Hours
Hours
Hours
Hours
Task 2
16
8
60
60
8
$20,240
152
$200
$20,440
$3,000
16
$3,000
$23,440
TASK 2TOTAL
16
8
60
60
8
0
$20,240
152
$200
$20,440
$3,000
$23,440
Task 3- Forecast and Risk Analysis
Hours
Hours
Hours
Hours
Hours
Hours
Task
16
10
45
45
8
$17,080
124
$800
$17,880
$1,600
8
$400
$2,000
$19,880
TASK 3TOTAL
16
10
45
45
8
0
$17,080
124
$ 800
$ 17,880
$ 2,000
$ 19,880
Task 4 -Study Report
Hours
Hours
Hours
Hours
Hours
Hours
Task4
8
20
8
$4,400
36
$500
$4,900
$1,200
6
$1,200
$6,100
TASK 4TOTAL
8
0
0
20
8
0
$4,400
36 $ 500
$ 4,900
$ 1,200
$ 6,100
Task S- Project Management, QA/QC
Hours
Hours
Hours
Hours
Hours
Hours
Project Management
16
24
$4,560
40
$4,560
$4560
Quality Assurance/Quality Control
8
16
$5,200
24
$5,200
$5,200
TASK 5TOTAL
24
16
0
0
0
24
$ 9,760
64
$ -
$ 9,760
11$0
$9,760
80
40
129
149
32
24
$62,6401
454
$2,300
$64,940
$8,400
44
$800
$9,200
$74,140